As the war rages on between Israel and Hamas with no end in sight, there are fears that a ground offensive by Israel in Gaza could escalate the conflict in the region, and could even have repercussions in Europe, where countries are preparing for a new wave of terror attacks.
In the latest sign of growing tensions in the Middle East, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told ABC’s “This Week” program on Sunday, October 22nd that he is “concerned about potential escalation” in the war between Israel and the Palestinian terror group Hamas that broke out more than two weeks ago and has claimed thousands of lives. “What we’re seeing … is the prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region. If any group or any country is looking to widen this conflict and take advantage of this very unfortunate situation … our advice is: don’t,” Austin said.
He was primarily referring to the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which has clashed with Israeli forces in support of Hamas, but reports of U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria being targeted by drones have also increased since the war erupted. Washington has deployed two aircraft carriers, support ships and about 2,000 Marines to the eastern Mediterranean to help deter attacks by Iran-affiliated forces. Austin says extra air defence missile system battalions will be sent to the region and more troops put on standby.
China also deployed six warships to Kuwait last week, officially to mark the fifth anniversary of the establishment of the China-Kuwait strategic partnership. The 44th Naval Escort Task Force has been involved in routine operations in the area since May, and its latest movement is seen by some analysts as a sign that tensions are rising in the region.
Major powers are preparing for an escalation of the conflict, because Israel has amassed tanks and troops around Gaza for a planned ground invasion aiming to annihilate Hamas. “I warn the US and its proxy Israel that if they do not immediately stop the crime against humanity and genocide in Gaza, anything is possible at any moment and the region will go out of control,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian recently told a news conference. He said that the results could be “severe, bitter” and “have far-reaching repercussions”, both regionally and for those advocating for war.
Developments in the Middle East are reverberating all around Europe, with antisemitic incidents on the rise, and European nations raising their terror alert levels in fear of retaliatory jihadist attacks. In its most recent assessment, risk analysis group Crisis24 says that Austria, Belgium, France, Spain and Sweden have all heightened their terrorism warning levels. “We have to see that the current incident has high potential for escalation,” Austrian Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner said, adding: “People are “highly emotional” and tensions are running high worldwide.”
Last week, a Tunisian man, “inspired by the Islamic State” extremist group, gunned down two Swedish football supporters in Brussels, and a few days prior, a Chechen terrorist stabbed a teacher to death in France.
Although neither of these attacks is known to have been connected with anger over Israel’s military manoeuvres, “every war in Gaza has led to a rise in extremist activism on the continent,” warns British journalist and terrorism expert Jason Burke, writing for The Guardian. He explains that the threat posed by Islamic State (IS) has not gone away entirely:
There have been dozens of abortive plots, with hundreds of suspects detained over recent years. Often this goes unnoticed. Few paid much attention to an alleged terror plot by a Tajik IS cell that targeted US and NATO military bases in Germany in 2020, or the twin police operations targeting IS financiers and online recruiters in Spain in 2022. More recently, five people were arrested in early April in Sweden on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act in retaliation for the burning of a copy of the Quran at a rally in Stockholm some months earlier.
Talking to ABC News last week, Catherine De Bolle, executive director of Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, said she is worried about what might happen in the wake of the war between Israel and Hamas:
With our latest report on terrorism and the status in the European Union, we see that a lot of youngsters, in fact, are influenced and recruited through the internet. We see a lot of lone actors that believe that they have to go and commit a terrorist attack because they want to belong to a bigger family.
Europe has to be aware, Crisis24 also warns, because “further incidents that cause significant loss of life in either the Gaza Strip or Israel will likely spark impromptu protests. Demonstrations will likely take place at mosques, public squares, city centres, city halls, Palestinian diplomatic offices, and Israeli embassies or consulates.”
While the member states of the border-free Schengen Area have in recent weeks reintroduced checks at their internal borders to stop a rising number of illegal migrants from entering, some countries are now doing so in response to the war in the Middle East. Slovenia on Saturday deployed police on border crossings with Croatia and Hungary to prevent “members of various terrorist and extremist movements and groups” moving from areas of armed conflict and aiming to reach Europe, reports Reuters. Last week Italy also reinforced its border with Slovenia, citing an increased threat of terrorism in Europe due to violence in the Middle East.
