Germany is experiencing a new migration conundrum. While judges are overwhelmed by tens of thousands of new appeals against asylum decisions, only a handful of Syrians—fewer than 2,000 out of nearly one million living in the country—have requested official assistance to return to their homeland, despite the fall of Bashar al-Assad having been celebrated as the condition that would make their return possible.
The first half of 2025 brought a record number, 76,646 lawsuits by migrants initiated before administrative courts, more than in all of 2023 (71,885) and three-quarters of the 2024 level. Densely populated states such as North Rhine-Westphalia (13,304), Bavaria (11,412), and Lower Saxony (over 11,000) account for much of this surge.
The consequences are visible: in some regions, cases already exceed one and a half years of waiting. According to Sven Rebehn, president of the German Judges Association, the increase is due to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees speeding up its asylum procedures, which multiplies the number of appeals.
What the government and its allies omit is that it was former Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock who, before leaving office, traveled to Damascus not to seek support for repatriating Syrians or for their return, but to invite more Syrian migrants for Germany.
After Assad fled in December 2024 and the official end of the civil war, only 1,867 people have applied for federal support to return. The REAG/GARP program, which offers up to €4,000 per family in travel expenses, initial aid, and medical coverage, has failed to incentivize the community of nearly one million Syrians living in Germany.
The comparison with neighboring countries is striking: in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, or Iraq, more than two million refugees have already returned to their home countries. In Germany the trend goes the other way. In 2024, 83,150 people obtained German citizenship.
At the same time, violent incidents fuel public distrust. Last Sunday, a 57-year-old Syrian man fatally stabbed a woman of the same nationality in downtown Magdeburg. The scene, which ended with the attacker seriously injured and under investigation for involuntary manslaughter, illustrates how integration of this community remains far from achieved.
Germany thus faces a political dilemma. For years, it was argued that the mass arrival of Syrians in 2015 was a temporary and humanitarian measure, intended to offer shelter until conditions in their country improved. Today, when the circumstances for return appear more favorable, the overwhelming majority choose to remain in Germany, straining public services and, in many cases, formally integrating through naturalization.
Javier Villamor is a Spanish journalist and analyst. Based in Brussels, he covers NATO and EU affairs at europeanconservative.com. Javier has over 17 years of experience in international politics, defense, and security. He also works as a consultant providing strategic insights into global affairs and geopolitical dynamics.
