The International Monetary Fund has determined that Ukraine’s estimated funding is too low and they may need as much as $20 billion more than the government in Kyiv officially submitted, just as talks to secure the next aid package are set to begin.
Last week, Ukraine presented its financing plan to the IMF for 2026 and 2027. The Washington-based lender found a major discrepancy, as they estimate getting the war-torn country back on its feet would need additional funding amounting to billions of dollars. Agreeing on the exact amount is crucial for Kyiv as their current loan runs out shortly and they are in a hurry to secure more funding.
If the IMF’s projections prove correct, Kyiv may need to secure several billion dollars more each year in financial support from Western allies to sustain its defense against Russia. As the war enters its fourth year with no resolution in sight, growing concern is emerging over Ukraine’s ability to meet its escalating military demands.
Kyiv is sticking to its earlier estimate that it will need up to $37.5 billion over two years, but the IMF projects that the total amount could be between $10 billion and $20 billion higher, according to an official familiar with the talks. The person requested anonymity to speak freely about the closed-door discussions.
The IMF is working jointly with the country’s authorities to look at the financing needs for the rest of 2025 and also for 2026, Julie Kozack, a spokesperson for the fund, said during a press conference in Washington. “These discussions will include looking at the appropriate assumptions regarding the potential timeframe for the war,” Kozack said. She did not provide a timeline for negotiations on a new financing program, saying that would be developed in the coming weeks.
The new debate over funding requirements follows Kyiv’s recent formal request for another financing program from the IMF. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said she had submitted an official letter to the fund during a meeting in Kyiv with Gavin Gray, the head of the IMF’s monitoring mission.
Ukraine is already experiencing difficulties in mobilizing new aid from its major partners. The contribution from the United States, Kyiv’s biggest donor at the start of the war, has declined since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, making the EU the largest provider of financial assistance.
Most of the financing from the IMF’s current $15.5 billion package has already been disbursed. The program, which assumed the war would end this year, expires in 2027. Prime Minister Svyrydenko is seeking approval for a new package from the IMF’s board by the end of the year.
Ukraine is also reluctant to raise taxes on its war-weary population despite IMF recommendations. Instead, the lender is pushing Kyiv to reduce the size of the shadow economy, which the cabinet estimates at over 30% of GDP.
The two sides are expected to settle on a figure next week as consultations continue. Once an agreement is reached, the government and the IMF will reach out to Ukraine’s allies to discuss ways to secure the additional financing. For Europeans, that will not be cheap.
