The possible early departure of Christine Lagarde from the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB) has opened a debate that goes beyond monetary policy and moves squarely into the political arena.
According to the Financial Times, the ECB president could leave her post before the formal end of her mandate in October 2027, coinciding with a period of high uncertainty in France ahead of the next presidential elections.
Officially, the ECB has denied that any decision has been made. However, the mere prospect of an early resignation has raised eyebrows in Brussels, Paris, and Berlin. The issue is not only who will succeed Lagarde, but also when and under what balance of power the transition would take place.
The procedure for appointing the ECB president is clearly structured: the Eurogroup agrees on a candidate and the European Council formally appoints them. In practice, the euro area’s largest economies—chiefly France and Germany—exert decisive influence over the final outcome.
If Lagarde were to step down before France’s 2027 presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron and current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz would have room to promote a candidate aligned with their vision before France’s political landscape potentially shifts.
The context is crucial. Polls point to steady growth for the sovereignist right, traditionally more critical of the euro’s current architecture. Moreover, Marine Le Pen and her party have been openly critical of the EU’s economic governance.
From this perspective, an early resignation could be interpreted as a preventive maneuver aimed at ensuring that a possible victory by the French leader—or another eurosceptic figure—does not influence, directly or indirectly, the selection of the next ECB president.
The weight of the Franco-German axis
It would not be the first time that the ECB’s leadership has emerged from high-level political agreements. In 2019, Lagarde’s appointment followed an understanding between Macron and Angela Merkel. That precedent reinforces the perception that, beyond formal procedures, key decisions are shaped within the framework of the so-called Franco-German axis.
Adding to the controversy, Lagarde had previously been convicted in December 2016. France’s Court of Justice of the Republic (CJR) found her guilty of negligence in the handling of public funds in the so-called “Tapie affair.”
As Finance Minister in 2008, she authorized an arbitration process that resulted in the payment of approximately €400 million in public funds to businessman Bernard Tapie.
Although she was found guilty, the court imposed no penalty: neither prison (which could have reached up to one year), nor a fine (up to €15,000), nor a criminal record—a truly unprecedented outcome in the country’s history and within the European Union.
If an early departure were confirmed, control of the eurozone’s main monetary institution would effectively be secured before French voters could alter the domestic balance of power. In such a scenario, the future ECB president—whoever that may be—would carry the perception of having been appointed within a carefully seized political window of opportunity.
The debate is far from trivial. The ECB is not an isolated technical body; it sets interest rates, shapes credit conditions, influences public debt sustainability, and underpins the financial stability of 20 countries.
Its independence is a foundational principle. Yet formal independence does not always dispel questions about timing and political motivations behind top-level appointments.
Candidates and balance of power
Among the names circulating as Lagarde’s successors are Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, Germany’s Isabel Schnabel, and former German Finance Minister Jörg Kukies. Each profile represents a distinct approach to monetary policy, ranging from more interventionist positions to more restrictive stances on inflation.
The calendar also reinforces the sense of synchronization. Several seats on the ECB’s Executive Board are due to become vacant in the coming years, including the vice presidency. The composition of the institution’s core leadership is therefore undergoing a reshaping process—a transition that could prove decisive for the future direction of the euro area.
