Pedro Sánchez’s approach to NATO’s new defence spending target has caused significant controversy in Spain and abroad. On Sunday, 22 June, the Spanish prime minister announced in a speech—without journalists—that Spain would only commit to spending 2.1% of its GDP, well below the new 5% threshold proposed by the Alliance. Just hours later, he published a letter signed by NATO’s new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, which appears to qualify—if not directly contradict—his statements.
The real question is whether Spain can actually meet NATO’s capability demands on just 2.1% of GDP, as Sánchez insists. Given the rushed timeline and lack of detail, that claim is impossible to verify.
According to Sánchez, Spain cannot commit to the 5% target, calling it a “disproportionate and unnecessary” figure that would force the country to “squander billions” and endanger social spending. “No more, no less,” he said in his speech. But what was intended as a show of strength quickly turned into a test of his credibility when Sánchez himself published Rutte’s letter, which, far from exempting Spain from the commitment, speaks of “flexibility to determine its sovereign path to reach” that goal.
This isn’t just a subtle difference. Far from exempting Spain, the letter confirms that while Madrid may choose its own path, the final objective—meeting NATO’s capability targets—remains unchanged. Spain, therefore, would still be expected to meet the target, albeit following a different timeline. The letter clarifies that this will be reviewed in 2029, “in light of the strategic environment and updated capability targets” of the Alliance, reinforcing the notion that 5% remains the ultimate objective.
The confusion has been significant. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the main opposition Partido Popular, accused the prime minister of “lying” and of committing to long-term military spending “without a budget and parliamentary approval.” “Kicking the can down the road,” he summarised. Ester Muñoz, deputy secretary of the PP, was even more direct: “You lie even with a letter that says the opposite of what you claim.”
Sánchez’s response on social media was as striking as it was revealing. He posted the letter in English with a sarcastic message addressed to Feijóo: “Here you go, Alberto. Get someone to translate it for you.” The government is now trying to convince the public that this “flexibility” means budgetary sovereignty, not submission to the 5% target. However, NATO’s text suggests otherwise: it is not a Spanish exception, but an alternative route to the same destination.
The matter has significant implications, coming just days before a key NATO summit to be held this week in The Hague. NATO is preparing to adopt a new defence spending target of 5% of GDP across all member states, divided into 3.5% for conventional military spending and 1.5% for broader security areas, such as cybersecurity, infrastructure, and more. The fact that one of NATO’s principal members publicly says it will not meet that target, while officially signing the agreement, raises questions about internal unity and creates confusion at a time of Russian rearmament, tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and the growing conflict in the Middle East.
Sánchez’s domestic motivations appear clear. The move comes as his government is severely eroded by alleged corruption scandals, while several of his coalition partners have openly opposed increased military spending. Yolanda Díaz, leader of the far-left Sumar, praised the position: “The refusal to comply with NATO’s spending demands points in the right direction.”
Aware of how unpopular the 5% figure is among his parliamentary allies, Sánchez has attempted to manoeuvre ambiguously. But in doing so, he has effectively fact-checked himself. He has shown that one cannot publicly reject a commitment while simultaneously publishing a letter that confirms it. And he has stirred unease among his partners, who now see Spanish foreign policy as a precarious balancing act.
