As Poles prepare to go to the polls on June 1st to decide who the country’s next president will be, the two candidates who made it to the second round of the elections led rival marches in Warsaw on Sunday, May 25th.
One, dubbed ‘The Great March of Patriots,’ was headed by liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who came out on top in the first round of the voting. According to press reports, tens of thousands were in attendance.
The other rally, led by PiS-backed conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who placed second behind Trzaskowski on May 18th, also drew a massive crowd. The ‘March for Poland’ attendees expressed support for the defense of traditional values.
The huge interest in the rival rallies show that the outcome of the upcoming second round will be about more than just the presidential seat. After years under the rule of the Civic Platform (PO)—the liberal party of Donald Tusk affiliated with the European People’s Party (EPP)—marked by institutional erosion, ideological imposition, and unprecedented social fracture, the country may be on the verge of shifting back toward a conservative direction. The runoff, scheduled for June 1st, will pit Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski against conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS) and other sovereigntist forces.
The first round ended with a razor-thin vote margin: between the top two contestants: Trzaskowski won 31% of the vote, while Nawrocki secured 29%. Sławomir Mentzen, leader of the Konfederacja (Confederation) party (PfE/ESN), earned a significant 14.8%, making him the potential kingmaker of the runoff. As hHis support is crucial, soand Nawrocki moved swiftly: he publicly signed an eight-point declaration proposed by Mentzen, pledging to reject tax hikes, prevent the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine, block Ukraine’s NATO membership, and oppose the European Green Deal.
Trzaskowski, on the other hand, declined to sign the document and disagreed on a number of matters with Mentzen during a livestreamed conversationengaged in a more lukewarm conversation with Mentzen, on Friday, May 23. . Nevertheless, the two menboth men shared a beer afterward, joined by fForeign mMinister Radosław Sikorski. This gesture has been interpreted by many conservative voters as a sign of complacency on Mentzen’s part with the liberal, pro-EU establishment that has governed Poland in recent years. How this may affect the results is too early to say for sure.
A country divided between two visions
These are not just any elections. As Nawrocki himself put it, they represent “a choice between a free and sovereign Poland, or one subordinated to foreign interests.” Speaking after the first round, the conservative candidate warned of the danger of consolidating a monolithic government under the orbit of Tusk and his allies in Brussels, vowing to be the “voice of the silenced majority” from the Presidential Palace.
His proposals — focused on defending the family, securing the borders, rejecting the euro, and protecting Polish sovereignty against EU-imposed structural reforms — resonate with a large segment of the population, especially in rural areas and among patriotic sectors of the youth.
The Poland that emerges from the polls this June 1st will be fundamentally different depending on the outcome. A Trzaskowski victory would consolidate the liberal, multicultural, and federalist agenda promoted by Brussels. Conversely, a Nawrocki win would mark the beginning of a reversal of the ‘“denationalization’” and social disintegration processes set in motion under Tusk.
With polls locked in a technical tie and civic engagement on the rise, Poland braces for what may be its most consequential election since the fall of communism. This is not merely a presidential race: it is a battle for the soul of the nation.
