The regional elections held this Sunday in Rhineland-Palatinate have produced a result that confirms the political shift that has been visible in Germany for several years, but that until now had rarely appeared so clearly in the western part of the country.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won with 31% of the vote, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a sharp setback after decades of dominance. Most notably, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieved a historic result that has consolidated it as the third force, with real capacity to influence the formation of government.
Beyond the Christian Democratic victory, election night was marked by two figures that explain the new German political balance: the collapse of the SPD, which lost almost ten points, and the unprecedented growth of the AfD, which reached 19.5% of the vote, more than double its result in 2021. It did not break the psychological 20% barrier, but it has never been so close before.
🚨BREAKING: the AfD have made SURPRISING GAINS in the West Germany Rhineland-Palatinate state election
The result confirms that protest voting and sovereigntist voting are no longer phenomena limited to the eastern part of the country but a trend that is now consolidated in western Länder as well.
CDU wins and ends 35 years of socialist dominance
The result allows the CDU, led at the federal level by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, to recover a state that had been in Social Democratic hands for more than three decades. With 31% of the vote, the Christian Democrats would obtain 39 seats in the regional parliament, ahead of the SPD, which fell to 25.9% and would keep 32 deputies after governing the region since 1991.
The blow was quickly acknowledged by the Social Democrats. SPD Secretary General Tim Klüssendorf admitted on public broadcaster ARD that the result represents “a severe setback”, reflecting a loss of support that has been repeated in several recent elections and that particularly affects the party’s traditional electorate.
Survey data underpin that this is a trend. Among workers, historically the main Social Democratic stronghold, the SPD now falls behind the AfD, while the CDU dominates among the self-employed, civil servants and older voters. The electoral map thus reflects a profound transformation of the German party system, where old loyalties no longer guarantee results.
As a curious detail of the night, the channel Das Erste initially gave victory to the SPD during the count:
„Die SPD ist der Sieger dieser Wahl“ – Jörg Schönenborn zur Wahl in Rheinland Pfalz. Warum werden wir unter Androhung von Gefängnis gezwungen für diese freudschen Versprecher zu zahlen? pic.twitter.com/ybPRcsT02O
AfD achieves its best result ever in western Germany
The main protagonist of the night, however, was Alternative für Deutschland. With 19.5%, the sovereigntist party achieved its best result ever in a western state and became the party that grew the most compared to 2021, gaining more than eleven points.
The advance is especially visible among young voters and among the working class. Among voters under 30, AfD ranks as the strongest force, ahead of the SPD and far ahead of the CDU, while among workers it reaches around 30% of the vote, surpassing both Social Democrats and Christian Democrats.
At the same time, in some constituencies in the Westerwald district the party came close to 50%, a figure that would have been unthinkable in western Germany just a decade ago.
The AfD becoming a stable option for sectors that previously voted for the left or for traditional parties is a trend that can be seen in other European countries such as Spain or France.
The distribution of seats leaves a fragmented parliament, but with a clear majority if CDU and AfD decide to cooperate. According to the provisional result, the Christian Democrats would obtain 39 deputies and the AfD 24, which would be enough for a majority against the 32 of the SPD and the 10 of the Greens.
Until now, the national leadership of the CDU has maintained the cordon sanitaire against AfD, a political line also defended by Social Democrats and Greens. However, pressure increases every time the numbers show that an alternative majority is possible without resorting to coalitions with the left.
Javier Villamor is a Spanish journalist and analyst. Based in Brussels, he covers NATO and EU affairs at europeanconservative.com. Javier has over 17 years of experience in international politics, defense, and security. He also works as a consultant providing strategic insights into global affairs and geopolitical dynamics.
