The frontrunners in the Romanian presidential election scheduled for May 4th, 2025 (from top left to bottom right): fomer Social Democratic prime minister Victor Ponta; AUR leader George Simion; PSD-PNL-UDMR candidate Crin Antonescu; Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan
Photo: Daniel Mihailescu / AFP
Romania’s presidential elections, with the first round set for this Sunday, May 4th, are shaping up to be an extremely tight race for the runoff.
According to the latest AtlasIntel poll conducted for HotNews, AUR leader George Simion remains in the lead in the Romanian presidential race with a 30.2% support among respondents, closely followed by Crin Antonescu, the candidate of the PNL-PSD-UDMR alliance, with 24.3%, and Nicușor Dan, with 22.4%. Victor Ponta (11.3%) and Elena Lasconi (6.3%) trail behind. The margins are so tight that any last-minute surge could tip the balance in what promises to be a historic election.
The poll, carried out between April 28th and May 1st, confirms an intense mobilization by all political blocs. The specific focus of the study targets “likely voters”—citizens who not only have the right to vote but traditionally turn out at the polls and have expressed their intention to do so again. This type of sampling significantly reduces the margin of undecided voters and offers a snapshot closely aligned with what is expected on election day. However, electoral excitement is overshadowed by growing social discontent. Public confidence in the process has been eroded by the controversial direct intervention of the Constitutional Court, which many perceive as a manu militari intrusion into the normal democratic process.
The court’s recent rulings are widely seen as an attempt to hinder the progress of patriotic formations, which have gained significant momentum in recent years thanks to a clear and forceful message defending national sovereignty and traditional values.
This institutional pressure has sparked palpable frustration, especially among voters critical of the political and judicial establishment. Accusations of “shielding” and manipulation of the electoral playing field have turned this campaign into one of the most tense and polarized in decades.
Patriotic voices warn that the pressure on their candidates is a calculated maneuver to neutralize the real alternative to the power of the major traditional parties in Romania and argue that such tactics only deepen public disaffection and skepticism toward politics.
As the country awaits Sunday’s results, polling projects highly varied scenarios for the runoff. Simion would only secure victory if he faced Victor Ponta; in any other matchup, Crin Antonescu, Elena Lasconi, and Nicușor Dan would prevail over him. The most likely final, between Simion and Antonescu, shows a significant gap: 47% for the PNL-PSD-UDMR bloc candidate versus 37% for the AUR leader.
Javier Villamor is a Spanish journalist and analyst. Based in Brussels, he covers NATO and EU affairs at europeanconservative.com. Javier has over 17 years of experience in international politics, defense, and security. He also works as a consultant providing strategic insights into global affairs and geopolitical dynamics.
