Ambivalent no more, Berlin is taking the initiative on Russia-Ukraine; formerly divided on the issue, it is now positioning itself as a unified, far from timid voice amidst a broader European choir.
While visiting with Ukrainian dignitaries on Monday, Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, on her first major assignment, expressed hope for a diplomatic solution to the current unrest in the region. Yet, should efforts fail and Moscow attacks Kyiv, it would pay a “high price.” The price exacted would be primarily economic, as in a possible delay for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline approval—an issue that despite German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s intentions, has now become politicized. Outwardly, it shows a significant consolidation of opinion among important German officials who were formerly split on the issue. The threat of economic repercussions coming from Germany removes substantial unease from Ukraine, since non-approval of the pipeline means Ukraine maintains some influence over Russia. An important exporter of gas, Russia makes use of Ukraine’s infrastructure to transport it to Europe. Holding on to this leverage may be key to deterring invasion.
Baerbock went on to say that Germany would “do our all to guarantee Ukraine’s security.” Such promises sound hollow to Ukrainians however. Unlike the U.S. and the UK, Germany has refused to supply Ukraine with weapons, even if used defensively. Before Baerbock’s visit, ambassador to Germany Andrij Melnyk had called the decision “very frustrating and bitter” in an interview with German media. During her talks, Russian forces and hardware were already rolling into Belarus. A joint exercise next month has been the excuse provided by Belarusian officials. The so-called “Allied Resolve” exercises would be held near Belarus’ western rim, which borders on Poland and Lithuania (both NATO members), and its southern flank, bordering an increasingly beleaguered Ukraine. According to Belarus’ Defense Ministry, the exercise’s main objective is to assess combat readiness of the armed forces when defending their borders. It’s another stress point, added to an already tense situation. On January 14th, Ukraine was hit by a sophisticated cyber attack, source still unverified, after which Germany in coordination with other EU states put to work their Cyber Rapid Response Unit. This provided assistance in helping to boost the country’s cyber defenses. In the attack’s wake, Poland decided to see to its own defenses, and raised its alert level.
Before Baerbock left for Moscow, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said, at a briefing, that it is “important for us now that neither Berlin nor Paris makes any decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine, and does not play any game behind our backs in relations with Russia. This is the key now.” It is a familiar grievance for Ukraine, that it has thus far been shut out of the recent negotiations. Kuleba however also said that Kyiv and Berlin had come to an understanding that, to end the ongoing war in the Donbas region, the so-called “Normandy” format, which would put Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia at the table, should be followed.
On Tuesday, Baerbock arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. During her opening remarks at the press conference following their talks, Baerbock, 41 (more than 30 years Lavrov’s junior), seemed to hint at negligence on Russia’s part: “We, who bear political responsibility, have no more important duty than to protect our people—especially from war and violence,” and that she was convinced “that we can achieve this best through successful talks, not against each other but with each other.”
“Russia has demanded security guarantees, and this has just been made clear once again,” she went on to say. “We are ready for a serious dialogue on mutual agreements and steps that will bring more security to everyone in Europe.” Baerbock’s tone, understatedly chiding yet conciliatory, could change at a moment’s notice. With Moscow’s 100,000 troops massed near the Ukrainian border, Russia appears to be preparing for conflict. “It’s hard not to see this as a threat,” Baerbock said, adding that they were there “for no understandable reason.”
She however stressed that Germany was a trading nation that relied on stability to do business, but that Germany has “an even more fundamental interest in maintaining the European peace order, in which equal and binding rules apply to all, and on which all could rely.” Baerbock gives the impression of a Germany that is up for the task of juggling an intractable Russia, upholding security assurances to allies, as well as prioritizing its own economic interests—among them, a ready supply of Russian gas.
Meanwhile, NATO and the U.S. envision more talks with Moscow. On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv, where he said he hopes that “Russia can stick to a diplomatic and peaceful path.”
Blinken, just as Baerbock before him, will be meeting with the seasoned Russian foreign minister. Yet again the Russia-U.S. meeting, scheduled for Friday, will take place on Geneva’s neutral soil, where the first round of talks between the two countries failed to bear fruit. On Thursday, Baerbock will first make a stop in Berlin to meet with European allies. The allies, NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg, the alliance’s secretary general on Tuesday said, were prepared to discuss “arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation, and encourage Russia to engage seriously on reducing the threat from nuclear weapons and missile systems.”
Smaller nations, and non-NATO members in particular, increasingly feel left out, however. Just earlier this year, rumors of a possible Scholz-Putin meeting planned to take place later this month, added fuel to the fire. During a strident New Year’s address, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said that Russia’s ultimatums “are in conflict with the European security order,” but demanded that all European nations, formal Western alliance members or not, be included in the security negotiations between Russia, the United States, and NATO. “In this situation, Europe cannot just listen in,” Niinistö added. “The sovereignty of several member states, also Sweden and Finland, has been challenged from outside the union. This makes the EU an involved party. The EU must not settle merely with the role of a technical coordinator of sanctions,” he urged.
Much points to the possibility of our continent undergoing a geopolitical reconfiguration. With a militarily revitalized and assertive Russia, the shift in Europe’s power balance has already happened. The stage, such as it is, is set. How it will look like in the near future remains to be seen.
