Shortly before the invasion of Ukraine began, Russian MiG-31K fighters carrying hypersonic missiles were identified in the Kaliningrad enclave. British intelligence has now confirmed that MiGs are also settled in Belarus as part of the ‘regional military grouping’ that this former Soviet republic forms with Russia.
The MiG-31K fighters carry the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, a state-of-the-art weapon developed by the Russians patterned on the Iskander, a tactical ballistic missile produced in the 1990s. Equipped with a nuclear warhead, the Kinzhal missile can reach a target 2000 km away in less than ten minutes, making it very difficult to counter. Their presence had been identified locally as early as February 2022, and was officially confirmed by the Russian Defence Minister in August. On that occasion, he specified that the fighters were on 24-hour alert. The deployment of MiG-31Ks carrying Kinzhal missiles near Kaliningrad brings most European capitals within range of Russian fire.
In October, Belarus and Russia announced that they would form a ‘regional military grouping’ to respond to the intensification of the conflict with Ukraine. President Lukashenko cited a Ukrainian threat to his borders as the reason for this. As part of this alliance, the Russian website Gazeta.ru announced that MiGs were to be deployed in Belarus. The information has since been confirmed by British intelligence and echoed by the UK ministry of defence.
In its November 1st update, the UK Ministry of Defence said that at least two MiG-31Ks were deployed on October 17th at the Machulishchy air base near Minsk in central Belarus. It also mentions the presence of crates large enough to carry Kinzhal missiles. This is the first time that such weapons have been hosted by Belarus, confirming the Lukashenko regime’s growing commitment to Russia.
The Kaliningrad missiles could already reach European capitals. This is also the case with these new missiles installed in Machulishchy. But the fighters located here can manoeuvre more easily than those in the former East Prussian enclave. On the eve of the battle of Kherson, the Ukrainian government fears a nuclear attack from Belarus, but the British ministry of defence believes that the value of a strike from Belarus on Ukraine is limited. A Kinzhal missile was already used in March against Ukrainian infrastructure without having a significant impact on operations, recalls Colonel Pappalardo, an expert for the French Air Force magazine Vortex, specialising in air and space operations. The Russian interest behind this installation is therefore to be found elsewhere. The threat to western Europe should be taken very seriously.
