Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez’s push to boost Spain’s military spending appears to be unsettling parts of the Spanish Left, while polls suggest modest gains for the conservative opposition.
The April survey conducted by Target Point for El Debate reveals an ongoing setback for Sánchez’s socialist PSOE party and, above all, for its far-left coalition partner Sumar, which has been unable to recover after months of decline. Meanwhile, the conservative Popular Party (PP) and populist Vox show slight improvements in their polling numbers.
After announcing his ambitious “Industrial and Technological Plan for Security and Defense” —a program framed carefully to avoid upsetting left-wing voters traditionally wary of military matters—Sánchez has suffered the sharpest drop in voter intention of the entire political cycle: down 2.1 percentage points in just one month. The PSOE now stands at 28.1%, its worst figure since last November.
But it is his coalition partner, Sumar, that has taken the hardest hit. Deputy PM Yolanda Díaz has only managed a timid recovery, rising from 5.5% to 6.5% —far from enough to counter the disillusionment of a left that views military expansion as a betrayal. Sumar would now win between 9 and 10 seats, a steep fall from the 31 it won in the July 2023 general elections. The scale of the fall is stark: Sumar is plummeting in support while the more extreme leftist electorate is either scattering or returning to Podemos, another far-left party, which edges up slightly to 5.3%.
Despite the general decline, Sánchez himself is not suffering as severely as his government partners.
Military rearmament strengthens PP and Vox
On the other side of the political spectrum, Sánchez’s defense plans and political shift have coincided with small gains for the opposition. The Popular Party gains four-tenths of a point to reach 33.5% in voting intention. Vox, meanwhile, also improves, reaching 14.3%.
Combined, PP and Vox could secure between 186 and 190 seats, according to the poll — a stronger position compared to the last election, though still dependent on alliances and turnout dynamics. For comparison, in July 2023, the combined total of PP and Vox did not surpass 169 seats. Now, their combined growth could exceed that figure by more than 20 seats.
Pedro Sánchez’s prospects appear challenging. If the poll is correct, he would be unable to form a majority even by uniting all his former allies—PSOE, Sumar, Podemos, Junts (Catalan separatists), ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia), Bildu (Basque nationalists), PNV (Basque moderates), BNG (Galician nationalists), and Coalición Canaria (Canary Islands regionalists): the progressive bloc would be stuck at 163 seats, far from the 176 needed.
The strain on Sánchez’s governing coalition is evident: Podemos has moved into open opposition, Junts is growing impatient over delays to a promised amnesty law for Catalan separatists, and the deep division between Sumar and Podemos leaves the Spanish Left fractured and weak.
