Strong Growth Outlook for Hungarian Economy

The Budapest Business Journal reports that the Hungarian economy is predicted to grow strongly in 2022:

Hungary’s economy could expand by 4-5% this year, CIB Bank chief analyst Mariann Trippon said at a press conference on Wednesday … the outlook is characterized by “greater than usual uncertainty” against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

Trippon also foresees domestic consumption to be a “main engine” in the economy. 

The BBJ also quotes Trippon as predicting Hungarian inflation to top out at 11% later in the year, with central-bank interest rates in the 7.5-8.5% bracket.

According to Eurostat, in April the Hungarian inflation rate stood at 9.6%, one percentage point above March. This rate exceeds the 8.1% average for the EU, but it is below nine other member states who have double-digit inflation. 

Hungary has built a record of strong growth. In 2014-2019, the Hungarian gross domestic product, GDP, expanded by more than 4% per year, adjusted for inflation. This put Hungary in the exclusive club of only six EU member states with 4%+ real GDP growth.

While maintaining strong GDP growth numbers, Hungary has also consistently had a low rate of unemployment. In 2015-2019, an average rate of 4.5% unemployed ranked Hungary 4th in the EU, after the Czech Republic (3/2%), Germany (3.6%), and Malta (4.3%). During the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, the Hungarian unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the 5th lowest rate in the EU.