A new analysis by Swedish researcher and author Nima Sanandaji reveals that municipalities with larger shares of residents of foreign background experience significantly higher levels of reported crime.
Writing for the news outlet Riks, Sanandaji examined crime statistics across Sweden’s 290 municipalities and concluded that there is a strong correlation between demographic composition and levels of reported criminality.
According to the analysis, municipalities where a majority of residents have a foreign background recorded an average of 14,843 reported crimes per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025.
By contrast, municipalities where more than 90% of residents have a Swedish background recorded an average of 7,013 reported crimes per 100,000 inhabitants during the same period.
The study defines people with a Swedish background as those born in Sweden with at least one Swedish-born parent. Individuals born abroad or born in Sweden to two foreign-born parents are classified as having a foreign background.
Sanandaji highlighted municipalities such as Botkyrka, Södertälje, Sigtuna, Järfälla, Haparanda, and Burlöv, where residents with a foreign background now make up a majority of the population. He contrasted these with municipalities including Hammarö, Forshaga, Lekeberg, and Gagnef, which recorded fewer than 5,000 reported crimes per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025 and where roughly nine in ten residents have a Swedish background.
The researcher argued that the relationship becomes even clearer when all municipalities are examined together.
According to his calculations, every ten-percentage-point increase in the share of residents with a Swedish background is associated with approximately 1,630 fewer reported crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.
The findings reinforce previous statistics and studies about the link between immigration and crime, including gang-related violence that has become a symbol of modern Sweden.
The current centre-right government has been trying hard to tackle violence, including decreasing the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 13, as migrant gangs rely more heavily on teenagers to carry out shootings and bombings.
Immigration and crime will be at the centre of the election campaign ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for September.
The opposition Social Democrats are leading opinion polls, and Sanandaji criticised proposals by the party for what he described as “politically driven population mixing” aimed at easing integration challenges.
He argued that such policies risk spreading social problems rather than resolving them, particularly if combined with increased levels of refugee and family-reunification migration.
The researcher also linked public safety to economic performance, citing studies suggesting that crime and insecurity can discourage investment, complicate recruitment efforts, and undermine business expansion.
Zoltán Kottász is a journalist for europeanconservative.com, based in Budapest. He worked for many years as a journalist and as the editor of the foreign desk at the Hungarian daily, Magyar Nemzet. He focuses primarily on European politics.
