Donald Trump appeared last night in prime time to try to convince the United States and its allies that the war with Iran is under control. He did exactly the opposite.
From the White House, the president said that Tehran is “practically defeated,” promised that the offensive could end in “two or three weeks,” and warned that if Iran does not yield, the United States will send it “back to the Stone Age.”
The message was meant to project strength. What it produced instead was a new wave of nervousness in the markets and a growing sense of political isolation.
For two days, investors and governments had been clinging to the idea of a quick end. Last night’s speech was enough to destroy that expectation.
Asian markets opened in the red just hours later. Japan fell by 1.4%. South Korea fell by 2.6%. U.S. futures, in less than twenty minutes, erased the modest gains of the previous two days. Oil climbed back above $105 a barrel. Gasoline rose above $4 a gallon in the United States for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Diesel is already approaching $5.50.
The problem was not only what Trump said. It was what the market heard.
The president insisted that the war is “almost over,” while at the same time threatening two or three more weeks of attacks. What investors heard was: more bombing, more tension in the Strait of Hormuz, and more risk to the world’s energy supply.
That is why oil rose again. And that is also why assets that had acted as safe havens over the past few days collapsed. Gold and silver fell sharply.
Traders are now rewriting their inflation forecasts in real time, not only because of oil. The partial blockade of Hormuz is already affecting the entire industrial chain. Aluminum, fertilizers, helium, and part of the semiconductor sector depend on logistics and energy routes that pass through the Gulf.
Oil companies are also warning that physical crude is becoming more expensive even faster than futures suggest. March ended with the largest monthly increase in dollar terms in history: 51%.
The Federal Reserve will now find it much harder to cut interest rates. Europe will once again face imported inflation. And Western governments that only a few months ago were talking about hope for recovery and growth are once again discussing rationing, remote work, and energy saving. The war with Iran is beginning to look less like a military operation and more like a global economic crisis.
But Trump’s speech did not fail only in the markets. It also revealed something politically deeper: his support is dwindling.
In Washington, even part of his own electorate is beginning to drift away. Lindsey Graham and the most interventionist wing of the Republican Party applauded the speech. But other conservative figures, including commentators close to Trump’s original movement, reacted with irritation.
For years, Trump built his political power by promising to end endless wars and focus on the domestic economy. Now he speaks like a neoconservative president from the early 2000s. War, more war, and then another war.
Outside the United States, the isolation is even more visible.
Trump responded by publicly attacking his own allies. He accused the United Kingdom of lacking courage, reproached France for preventing military aircraft from flying over its territory, and even suggested that Europe should “go get its own oil” if it does not want to support the war.
Trump keeps repeating that Europe depends on the United States for its security. That is true, at least in part. But Europe is beginning to ask what happens when that guarantee depends on a president who demands absolute obedience and threatens to abandon his allies if they do not take part in a war they consider illegal.
Last night’s speech was, in reality, a cry of desperation. Trump tried to project strength. What he showed instead was something very different: markets that no longer believe him, allies who obey him less and less, and a war whose promise of a quick end looks more every day like another endless war.
