Opposition parties will most likely form a new government in Poland, according to the official election results announced on Tuesday, October 17th. However, the contender for the prime minister’s job, Donald Tusk, will have an extremely difficult time cobbling together and then maintaining the stability of an ideologically diverse government that will consist of more than a dozen parties.
Although the Law and Justice-led (PiS) conservative-nationalist United Right—in government since 2015—is still the strongest political alliance in Poland and won 35.4% of the votes in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, it lost more than forty seats in the 460-member Sejm, the lower house of parliament. With its current batch of 194 seats, it is unable to form a government on its own or gain a majority with its potential coalition partner, the right-wing eurosceptic-libertarian Konfederacja (18 seats). As the PiS-critical daily Rzeczpospolita points out, the party still has huge support, which has not fallen below 30% for the past eight years, “a phenomenon that cannot be underestimated and a result that no other party has achieved since 1989.”
Former two-time prime minister and previous President of the European Council, Donald Tusk is much more likely to succeed in forming a coalition with other parties, whose only common aim is to oust PiS from power. The Tusk-led political alliance, Civic Coalition (KO)—consisting of six ideologically leftist, progressive, liberal, green, agrarian, and centre-right parties—won 30.7% of the votes, gaining 157 seats in parliament. Tusk would need the backing of two other alliances: the liberal-agrarian-centre-right Third Way (Trzecia Droga)(14.4%, 65 seats), made up of five parties, and the socialist-social democratic Lewica (8.6%, 26 seats), comprised of another six parties.
While coalition talks haven’t even started, divisions are already coming to the fore. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, leader of the Polish People’s Party—a member of Third Way—said in an interview that ideological issues shouldn’t play a part in the coalition agreement, referring to a proposal by centrist and leftist parties to loosen strict abortion laws in Poland. In response, Anna Maria Żukowska of Lewica said that “on the same basis,” farmers’ issues or other matters that are important to Kosiniak-Kamysz should also not be included.
There could be other potential clashes on the issue of migration. Tusk was berated by leftist politicians in July after the former prime minister accused the PiS government of allowing “uncontrolled” immigration from Muslim countries. With regards to the EU’s plans to relocate migrants across member states, spokesman for Tusk’s party, Jan Grabiec, told Euractiv, “We will certainly not agree to any solutions that would lead to the rising number of migrants in Poland.”
Despite a multiparty coalition preparing for government, Polish President Andrzej Duda, former Law and Justice politician, may task PiS with forming a government as the party that won the most seats. PiS has not given up hope of doing so, with newspaper sources saying that the party is prepared to make an offer to the Polish People’s Party or the entire Third Way. “The opposition will also have a problem [with forming a coalition], because they are united by their hatred towards PiS, and now they will have to agree on a common programme and division of positions. This may not be easy,” PiS politician Ryszard Terlecki, deputy speaker of the lower house, said.
However, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, leader of the Polish People’s Party, ruled out a coalition with PiS on Monday, reminding voters that the Third Way had run under the slogan: “Either the Third Way or a third term of PiS.” Rejecting any talk of difficult coalition negotiations, Marcin Kierwiński, General Secretary of Tusk’s party claimed a government formed of KO, Third Way, and Lewica would be able to create a stable government that “would restore normality in Poland” and dispose of “the all-encompassing corruption and thievery of PiS.”
Pro-government publication Wpolityce, however, believes that this anti-PiS stance is the only thing that unites the opposition, which is also expected to help “Germany’s grand plans, the centralisation of the European Union.” As we previously reported, the conservative governments in Poland and Hungary are opposed to plans by France and Germany to introduce qualified majority voting, taking away member states’ veto rights on most issues. Just like the Hungarian governing party Fidesz, PiS has also been harshly criticised by Western liberals and EU institutions for allegedly breaching the rule of law at home and not adhering to EU ‘values.’ The two countries have angered the EU with their sovereigntist approach and their no-nonsense, conservative stance on issues such as migration and gender ideology. It is no wonder that the two renegade countries are the only EU members not to have received their share of EU recovery funds.
It is also no wonder that critics of the two governments in the European Parliament welcomed the possibility of Tusk returning to power. “Poland is back,” declared Manfred Weber, the head of the European People’s Party. “A defeat for populists will bring a new era and put Poland at the centre of the EU,” said former liberal Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt.
