In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD has surged to a record 42% in the latest INSA poll commissioned by NIUS (conducted May 5–12, 2026). This represents a four-point increase since late March and solidifies the party’s dominant position ahead of the state election on September 6, 2026. The CDU has fallen to 24%, widening the gap between the two leading parties to a striking 18 percentage points.
A separate Infratest dimap poll from early May showed the AfD at 41% and the CDU at 26%, confirming the same broad trend.
The Left (Die Linke) holds steady around 12–13%. Meanwhile, Germany’s traditional mainstream parties are in deep trouble in the state: the SPD is polling at just 6–7%, barely above the 5% parliamentary threshold, while both the FDP (3%) and the Greens (4%) are projected to fall short of representation. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is hovering near or just below the threshold at around 4%.
With these numbers, the AfD is not only on track to become the strongest party but could potentially secure an outright majority of seats in the state parliament. This would mark a historic first for the party in any German state. However, other parties have so far maintained a strict cordon sanitaire against the AfD, which is officially classified as right-wing extremist by state authorities in Saxony-Anhalt. This raises difficult questions about possible coalitions and governance after September.
The strong showing reflects broader discontent in eastern Germany with the federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz and long-standing issues such as economic stagnation, demographics, and migration.
