The political landscape in Saxony-Anhalt is looking promising for the national conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of the crucial state election. According to a new Infratest dimap survey, the national-populist AfD is now polling at 41%, marking the first time the party has crossed the 40% threshold in any German state.
Alice Weidel, co-president of the AfD, reacted to the news on X, saying: “The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is steadily widening its lead over the CDU, now standing at 15 percentage points ahead. We’re looking forward to the election campaign in September!”
The result would represent a gain of more than 20 percentage points compared to previous election results and would place the AfD within reach of an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament. The CDU, currently leading the state government under Minister-President Sven Schulze, is polling at just 26%.
The collapse in support extends across the governing coalition parties. The SPD is polling at only 7%, while the FDP would fail to enter the state parliament at all and is no longer even listed in the polling figures. Together, the CDU and SPD command only 33% support.
The poll also highlights the limited effectiveness of recent efforts by establishment parties to contain the AfD’s growing influence. The CDU, SPD, Greens, and FDP recently cooperated with the Left Party on a series of parliamentary reforms to limit the AfD’s influence and power. Yet even with the Left Party included, those parties together would currently hold only a narrow four-point lead over the AfD. Just four months ago, that lead stood at twelve points, underscoring the speed of the AfD’s rise.
With four months remaining before the election, it cannot be ruled out that the party led by top candidate Ulrich Siegmund could close the remaining gap.
For the CDU, the polling represents a potentially historic defeat. Compared to the 2021 election, the party has lost more than eleven percentage points. Dissatisfaction is spreading at the national level, as voters voice their concerns about the leadership of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his party.
As the AfD’s popularity grows, establishment politicians are increasingly resorting to scare tactics. Former Saxony-Anhalt minister-president Reiner Haseloff recently claimed that if AfD won the state elections, German universities would not accept the high school diplomas of students graduating there.
