A new research paper suggests that nuclear stability can be achieved through strategic stability dialogues and transparency measures—even while admitting that a comprehensive legally binding agreement between the U.S., Russia, and China is currently a political impossibility,
Avoiding a New Nuclear Arms Race: How policymakers and experts can revitalize arms control for a new era argues that by focusing on neutral domains like space, and updating bilateral notification agreements, the N5 (P5) powers can avoid an accidental slide into the “Lawless Era” of a multi-party arms race. With the nuclear rearmament officially underway following the expiration of the treaty named New START, the 2026 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is shifting focus from grand treaties to incremental diplomacy.
According to the Chatham House-supported authors, the goal for 2026 is simple yet urgent: prevent a total collapse of the NPT by instead securing a minimum statement of support from all five nuclear powers. Rather than emphasise disarmament, the report seeks to establish the ‘traffic rules’ for an increasingly crowded and dangerous atomic highway.
