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Election Forecast: Italy’s Counter-Globalist Right Coalition May Win 60% of Seats by Robert Semonsen

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Election Forecast: Italy’s Counter-Globalist Right Coalition May Win 60% of Seats

An Italian research institute has published forecast figures which suggest the country’s counter-globalist, center-Right coalition may end up winning as many as 60% of the seats in parliament when votes in next month’s general election are counted. 

The forecast figures, published by L’Instituto Carlo Cattaneo earlier this week, revealed the center-Right coalition of Meloni’s Fratelli d’ Italali (FdL), Salvini’s Lega, and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia could garner as much as 46% of the national vote, a tally that would see the alliance secure 60% of seats in the bicameral legislature, the Milian-based Il Giornale reports.

In its report, the research institution notes that it based its forecast “on the averages of all the polls published between the second week of July and the first of August.” If its projections are correct, the right-wing, anti-establishment coalition could secure 245 out of 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 127 of 200 seats in the Senate. The institute, however, indicated in its report that the collected polling data suggests the Meloni-Salvini-Berlusconi coalition is unlikely to win a 2/3 super-majority.

Since July of 2021, Fratelli d’ Italali (FdL)—the sole opposition party during the rule of Mario Draghi’s ‘technocratic’ national unity government—has consistently polled as the country’s most popular party. Giorgia Meloni, as the leader of FdL, is thus favored to become Italy’s next prime minister. If her party emerges victorious in Italy’s national elections, set to take place on September 25th, Meloni would become Italy’s first female prime minister.

A Quorum poll published days ago placed Fratelli d’ Itali at 24.2%, ahead of the left-wing globalist Partito Democratico (PD) at 22.3%, and Lega at 14%. The popularity of Salvini’s party, which saw its support peak in July of 2019 at nearly 37%, has declined precipitously amid—and as a result of—its cooperation with Draghi’s open-borders, EU federalist government. 

Over the weekend, Salvini, who formerly served as interior minister, stated the center-right coalition remains united—and confirmed that he will support Meloni for prime minister if, in fact, her party garners the most votes in next month’s election. 

“This is democracy. If Giorgia Meloni takes one more vote, the prime minister is Giorgia Meloni. If Matteo Salvini takes one more vote, Matteo Salvini does. You can’t be clearer, more beautiful and linear than that,” the Lega chief said.

Also over the weekend, Italy’s center-left alliance was dealt a hard blow when Carlos Calenda, the leader of the liberal-centrist Azione party, dissolved his party’s election pact with Partito Democratico (PD), as previously reported by The European Conservative.

With the Italian Left in shambles and Meloni set to take the reins of power, major mainstream press organs like Politicothe GuardianAP NewsForeign Policy, and others, in their typical fashion, have mobilized to assassinate her character, writing a slew of hit pieces over the past several days and weeks claiming she’s far-right, a fascist, and a ‘danger to democracy.’

Robert Semonsen is a political journalist based in Central Europe. His work has been featured in various English-language news outlets in Europe and the Americas. He has an educational background in biological and medical science. His Twitter handle is @R_Semonsen.