Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy not only redefines the United States’ position on the global stage but also places Europe at its center. For the U.S. president, the continent is undergoing an internal crisis that threatens to turn it into an irrelevant actor in the new multipolar order.
Trump believes that if Europe continues weakening from within, not even the Atlantic alliance will be able to stop the rise of China, whose economic, technological, and diplomatic influence is expanding at a pace unprecedented in recent history.
The document uses language that no U.S. president had employed until now. It speaks of “civilizational erasure” in reference to Europe and warns that, if current trends persist, the continent will be “unrecognizable” in less than two decades. For the Trump administration, the problem is no longer merely economic—the loss of industrial competitiveness against Asia—but essentially cultural and demographic.
According to this view, Europe is internally breaking down due to three mutually reinforcing factors: mass immigration that alters social balance, a steep decline in birth rates that prevents generational continuity, and an ideological climate that censors discussion of these very issues.
Immigration, in particular, emerges as the most decisive point of fracture. The strategy describes how the continuous arrival of non-European populations is transforming the cultural composition of countries that, for centuries, shared a recognizable identity based on Christian traditions, strong family structures, and a sense of historical continuity.
For Trump, Europe has lost the ability to regulate who enters, for what purpose, and under what conditions, which has resulted in social tensions, lack of public safety, and political fragmentation undermining the stability of member states. The White House even warns that this demographic transformation could affect the architecture of Western security: if certain NATO member states reach non-European majorities in the coming decades, their strategic priorities could diverge from those of the United States. This diagnosis reveals how Washington sees Europe’s challenge not as territorial, but as identitarian.
This is combined with a much more pragmatic vision of alliances. Unlike previous administrations, Trump does not conceive of Europe as a partner to be protected but as an ally that must recover its strength to be useful in an increasingly competitive international system.
The United States needs Europe, but not just any Europe—rather one capable of sustaining its own security, defending its borders, strengthening its industry, and regaining confidence in its identity. Only then could the continent become a real counterweight to Chinese power. Hence, the document openly speaks of “cultivating resistance” within European states against the political trajectory set by Brussels, a trajectory Washington sees as disconnected from social reality and distant from the strategic needs of historic Western civilization.
Despite this rhetoric, Trump’s recent economic policy does not especially help him gain allies in this battle. Those who do support him tend to do so more for ideological reasons than pragmatic ones.
While Europe focuses on its internal crises, China is expanding its presence across entire regions of the planet, controlling key industrial sectors and advancing technologies that will shape the twenty-first century. For Trump, European weakness is not only a continental problem, but an obstacle preventing the United States from concentrating its energy on the true global challenge. Washington fears that an aging, divided Europe, absorbed by unresolved identity debates, will be unable to sustain its part of the Atlantic alliance, leaving the United States to face Chinese expansion alone.
Despite the apocalyptic tone, Trump does not offer a withdrawal but a warning. The Atlantic alliance remains strategic, but it can no longer rest on a continent in decline. Europe must decide whether it wants to be a relevant actor in the new global order or continue sliding into irrelevance as China consolidates its power. The message is clear: the United States is willing to cooperate, but it cannot save a partner that does not want to save itself. If the Union continues down this path, soon nothing will remain of the Europe we know.
