Fiscal Forecast: How To Identify a Recession
There was a lot of media attention recently to Germany being in a recession. The only problem is that those who said so, were wrong. Here is why.
There was a lot of media attention recently to Germany being in a recession. The only problem is that those who said so, were wrong. Here is why.
How is NATO going to respond to the problem with its rapidly depleting stockpiles of military hardware? They can’t spend more money.
Judging from the comments by central bank president György Matolcsy, Hungary could join the euro in 2030 or soon thereafter. Would such a membership be good for Hungary?
The new debt-ceiling deal has its merits, but it also kicks the big spending reform can down the road. It also ignores the broader threat to the U.S. economy: de-dollarization. On that front, there is one event that could end dollar hegemony with one stroke of the pen.
The overall trend in the European economy points in the wrong direction. Therefore, it is a very bad idea to raise any taxes in the EU. It does not matter that the taxes the EU has proposed will fail to generate the revenue that the MEP tax grabbers are hoping for.
Politicians are known for two things: they never do what they should, and they always do what they shouldn’t. First, they do not prevent a debt crisis, then they aggravate it.
France is at a fork in the road, where her political leaders have shrinking maneuverability, where they are running out of time, and where they cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Democrats and Republicans are bickering over the debt ceiling. They will reach an agreement before the June 1st “default” date, but it will only be a stopgap measure. At some point, Congress will face such high costs for its debt that not even the most optimistic investors can trust the U.S. Treasury any longer.
The official story is that the U.S. economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter. This number is heavily modified and tells us nothing. We have the real numbers.
America’s states are supposed to be sovereign jurisdictions. Yet when the federal government is their main source of revenue, how independent are they really?
The overall trend in the European economy points in the wrong direction. Therefore, it is a very bad idea to raise any taxes in the EU. It does not matter that the taxes the EU has proposed will fail to generate the revenue that the MEP tax grabbers are hoping for.
Politicians are known for two things: they never do what they should, and they always do what they shouldn’t. First, they do not prevent a debt crisis, then they aggravate it.
France is at a fork in the road, where her political leaders have shrinking maneuverability, where they are running out of time, and where they cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Democrats and Republicans are bickering over the debt ceiling. They will reach an agreement before the June 1st “default” date, but it will only be a stopgap measure. At some point, Congress will face such high costs for its debt that not even the most optimistic investors can trust the U.S. Treasury any longer.
The official story is that the U.S. economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter. This number is heavily modified and tells us nothing. We have the real numbers.
America’s states are supposed to be sovereign jurisdictions. Yet when the federal government is their main source of revenue, how independent are they really?
The more a tax system relies on financial markets, the more volatile and unpredictable those tax revenues will become. There is no doubt that the U.S. government is experiencing that in real time in 2023.
With a welfare state that dominates their budgets, European governments are exceedingly vulnerable to a recession. When tax revenue declines and entitlements force governments to spend more, the inevitable result is larger budget deficits. What will the ECB do in response to that?
There are growing signs that the United States is heading for a Greek-style fiscal crisis. It is not imminent, but close enough to cause real worries for anyone interested in the U.S. economy.
Three think tanks, three ideas for fiscal reform. Only one can be right.
In response to questions, an automaton-like Truss kept on reiterating her desire for high growth. Her party, let alone the nation, is unlikely to take heart from its Prime Minister’s latest performance.
The cold, hard truth embedded in all these numbers is this: going forward, the U.S. Treasury will have to continue to raise interest rates just to keep investors from selling American government debt.
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