Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has won the Saxony-Anhalt election decisively, bringing a party that has spent years behind the Brandmauer, Germany’s political firewall, to within just three seats of governing a federal state alone for the first time.
Amid a record turnout of close to 78%, AfD won 43.8% of the vote and 39 of the 83 seats in the Landtag. The CDU, which had secured 37.1% in 2021, fell to 17.2% and was left with 15 MPs. The SPD won eight seats, the Greens another eight, Die Linke eight, and BSW five. An absolute majority requires 42 seats.
The result puts Ulrich Siegmund at the centre of a particularly uncomfortable negotiation for the rest of Germany’s political system. Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla said AfD had received a “clear mandate to govern.” Siegmund went further: “We have made history,” he said on election night, also presenting the result as a message to Berlin.
For now, the CDU has chosen to keep intact the strategy that has just suffered its biggest defeat. Minister-President Sven Schulze acknowledged the failure, congratulated AfD as the election winner, and once again ruled out any cooperation with the party. The problem is arithmetic: the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Die Linke together have 39 MPs, exactly the same number as AfD. Without BSW, they cannot form a stable majority either.
BSW has therefore become the kingmaker in Magdeburg. Its federal leadership has so far rejected supporting either Siegmund or Schulze and has instead proposed an independent minister-president, although regional party figures have left open the possibility of cooperating with AfD on specific policies. An AfD-BSW alliance would have 44 seats.
The defeat also lands directly on Friedrich Merz. The chancellor initially remained silent on election night as CDU figures spoke of a “pause” and sought to prevent the result from turning into a leadership crisis. The SPD used exactly the same term: co-leader Lars Klingbeil described the election as a Zäsur and admitted that it was a signal to Berlin. Die Linke called it a “black day.”
The scale of the result also forces a reassessment of the strategy pursued against AfD for years. The party has been excluded from any cooperation by the main political forces, the possibility of banning it has been the subject of political debate, and in 2025 the federal intelligence service sought to have the organisation classified as “officially extremist.” In February, a Cologne court provisionally blocked that designation, ruling that, at this stage, the evidence was insufficient to apply it to the entire party. The Saxony-Anhalt branch remains classified as extremist by the regional service and has appealed that decision.
Institutional pressure alone does not explain AfD’s meteoric growth. It does, however, establish something simpler: the strategy of isolation has not reduced its electoral base; AfD has risen from 20.8% to 43.8% in five years. ARD’s own electoral analysis also acknowledges that the party is not simply attracting protest votes: many voters believe it represents their political positions more effectively.
German media are also beginning to debate whether the Brandmauer remains politically sustainable. Welt director Helge Fuhst said that “the image of the firewall” now belongs to the past. At the other end of the spectrum, an ARD commentary insisted that “the democratic majority is still there.” Right-wing conservative Junge Freiheit spoke of a “politische Zeitenwende,” ‘a change of political era.”
Outside Germany, the divide is equally clear. Paris described the result as “very worrying”; Donald Tusk said that in Poland only “idiots or traitors” could celebrate it. Matteo Salvini replied that it showed that “another Europe is possible,” while Viktor Orbán called it “a great night for Germany and Europe.” Santiago Abascal presented it as a source of hope for both. The EU institutions, by contrast, had issued no immediate official reaction.
