Fiscal Forecast America: How a Debt Default Happens
Politicians are known for two things: they never do what they should, and they always do what they shouldn’t. First, they do not prevent a debt crisis, then they aggravate it.
Politicians are known for two things: they never do what they should, and they always do what they shouldn’t. First, they do not prevent a debt crisis, then they aggravate it.
France is at a fork in the road, where her political leaders have shrinking maneuverability, where they are running out of time, and where they cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Democrats and Republicans are bickering over the debt ceiling. They will reach an agreement before the June 1st “default” date, but it will only be a stopgap measure. At some point, Congress will face such high costs for its debt that not even the most optimistic investors can trust the U.S. Treasury any longer.
While the stars are lining up for another fiscal crisis in Europe, the ECB’s chief economist fails to even mention the threat. Is the ECB ignorant on what is coming down the pike?
The downgrade by Fitch is a slap in the face for the French government, and especially for Emmanuel Macron.
The official story is that the U.S. economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter. This number is heavily modified and tells us nothing. We have the real numbers.
Twenty years ago, Central Europe had the lowest birth rate in the EU. The region has seen the greatest improvement in recent years. At the same time, female employment is also at its peak, the at-risk-of-poverty rate is much lower, and real earnings are rising steadily.
While the EPP tried to reassure colleagues that the proposed legislation preventing child sexual abuse does not violate the personal privacy of EU citizens, many MEPs remain unconvinced, calling for different approaches.
The continent is decidedly moving towards the Right. This could mean that the current balance of power in Brussels could radically change in favor of the center-Right in 2024.
New data suggests an elevated risk for stagflation in Europe. Policymakers beware!
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