Estimates suggest that China’s battery manufacturing capacity could surpass projected global demand by 2030.
According to a new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, projected Chinese cell production capacity (between 5,862 GWh and 6,720 GWh by 2030) compares with a lower expected global demand (4,000 GWh to 5,100 GWh).
The Chinese totals would also exceed battery cell manufacturing capacity across the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): about 1,881 GWh by 2030 by the end of the decade.
While Chinese competitiveness rests on cost advantage, the report identifies lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP) as the major supply chain vulnerability facing Western economies, primarily for powering electric vehicles and battery energy storage systems. It estimates that about 98% of global LFP production capacity is located in China.
