New French Presidential Election Poll Reinforces Scenario of Bardella’s Ultimate Victory

A new poll by Odoxa, commissioned by the parliamentary channel Public Sénat and regional media, may mark a major turning point in the run-up to the French 2027 presidential election. For the first time in several weeks, or even months, the momentum appears to be shifting in favour of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The leader of La France insoumise, long considered a fringe figure in the prevailing scenarios for reaching the second round, has suddenly returned to the centre of the political arena. According to this poll, he is now virtually neck and neck with former prime minister Édouard Philippe in the race for second place, behind Jordan Bardella, the Rassemblement National candidate, who remains well ahead in voting intentions.

This tightening of the race constitutes a significant political development as it calls into question the scenario that had seemed inevitable for months: that of a Bardella-Philippe duel in the second round. Until now, the former prime minister appeared to be the natural candidate of the ‘central bloc’ inherited from Macronism, benefiting from often favourable media coverage and a reputation as a serious administrator. Several previous polls even presented him as the only candidate capable of beating Bardella in the second round. However, this new balance reveals a much deeper fragility in his candidacy.

Édouard Philippe’s decline appears to be linked to several factors. Firstly, his legal troubles are undermining his image of stability and competence. Secondly, his relative political low-profile over the past few weeks gives the impression of a campaign that is still incomplete, even as the presidential race intensifies. Odoxa also highlights a sharp drop in his approval ratings. This decline directly benefits Mélenchon, who, conversely, has enjoyed a surge in visibility since the official announcement of his candidacy.

The rise of the Insoumis leader is all the more notable given that it is taking place against a backdrop of persistent division on the left. For several months, some commentators have argued that the political space on the left was increasingly being occupied by a social-democratic realignment likely to emerge in the wake of Macronism. However, this poll shows that Mélenchon retains considerable electoral clout. By formalising his candidacy very early on, he has regained the strategic initiative and reaffirmed his dominance over the radical and popular left-wing electorate.

This dynamic could have significant consequences for the entire presidential election. Indeed, the various second-round scenarios do not produce the same political balances. Until now, much analysis has been based on the idea that an anti-RN republican front remained capable of holding its ground against Bardella, particularly around a Philippe candidacy. Several recent polls had shown Philippe winning in a direct contest with the RN leader.

Conversely, a Bardella-Mélenchon contest appears to be a much more favourable scenario for the RN. For months, a strong rejection of LFI has taken hold among a section of the public, including moderate and centre-left voters. Several previous surveys showed Bardella winning by a very wide margin against Mélenchon in the second round, sometimes by spectacular margins. This phenomenon reflects the gradual formation of an ‘anti-LFI front’, fuelled by the controversies surrounding the Mélenchonist movement, its confrontational strategy and its strong polarisation.

Thus, paradoxically, Mélenchon’s resurgence could strengthen Bardella’s chances of ultimate victory. The more Mélenchon gains ground in the first round, the more credible the possibility of an extremely polarised second round becomes. And in this scenario, a significant portion of the centrist, moderate or conservative electorate might reject the ‘barrage’ reflex that had hitherto prevented the far right from coming to power.

This poll also reveals a deeper trend: the ongoing erosion of the centrist bloc built around Emmanuel Macron since 2017. After almost ten years of Macronism, the political space of the centre appears increasingly fragile. Édouard Philippe’s difficulties illustrate the limits of a succession based essentially on the idea of continuity. The former prime minister was often presented as the most credible heir to Macronism, but he now struggles to embody an autonomous popular dynamic.

The simultaneous rise of Bardella and Mélenchon suggests, on the contrary, a growing radicalisation of the French political landscape. RN and LFI now appear to be the main beneficiaries of the central government’s waning influence and of the traditional parties’ blatant inconsistency. 

There is obviously still plenty of time before the 2027 presidential election, and polls conducted a year before an election must always be interpreted with caution. Previous French presidential elections have often shown that the political landscape can shift very rapidly in the final months. But this barometer carries strong symbolic significance: it shows that the scenario of a Bardella-Mélenchon run-off, long considered unlikely, is once again politically conceivable.

If this trend were to be confirmed in the coming months, the Left would find itself facing an impossible situation: the return of Mélenchon, which a significant section of the Left is calling for, could paradoxically lead to the RN coming to power.