Marine Le Pen’s conviction in the European parliamentary assistants affair is reshuffling the cards within the French Right, because if the long and uncertain appeal procedure fails, the national Right will have to imagine a future without Jean-Marie Le Pen’s daughter, a historic figure in the Rassemblement National (RN). Jordan Bardella, the party’s current president, is already in the running. But Marion Maréchal is also in the game, representing another part of the Le Pen-legacy.
Newsrooms are buzzing with tensions—real or supposed—between Jordan Bardella and his teams, and Marion Maréchal, who now heads her own party, the conservative Identité Libertés. Since the campaign for the European elections in June 2024 and her break with Éric Zemmour’s Reconquête party, Marion Maréchal has returned to the fold of the historic party founded by her grandfather Jean-Marie Le Pen, affirming her loyalty to her aunt’s candidacy for the next presidential election, while cultivating her independence—at least ideologically. But finding a place for oneself in these conditions is a constant challenge.
On April 6th, when Le Pen’s supporters gathered near the Invalides in Paris to show their support for the convicted candidate, Maréchal noted with bitterness that no place in the front row had been reserved for her—a symbolic slap in the face that she did not relish. According to Libération, she was also asked to remove the logo of her political group, Identité Libertés, from the poster calling for the demonstration.
Earlier, Maréchal and Bardella met up again during joint trips abroad to the United States and Israel. Exchanges were limited to the strict minimum. Many innuendoes between the two personalities are weighing down the atmosphere. Bardella fears a confrontation with the MEP, who enjoys a powerful aura among conservative voters. For her part, Marion Maréchal has left not only fond memories within the RN, and her return through the back door following her departure from Reconquête was not enough to wipe the slate clean.
In the European Parliament, Bardella and Maréchal have no choice but to cross paths and work together. And the RN has realised that it has every interest in taking care of Maréchal’s conservative supporters if it wants to attract more than just its core of trusted voters—working-class people exhausted by globalisation who are looking for both security and purchasing power. Surprisingly, at a time when debates are raging in France over the introduction of euthanasia, the RN finds itself defending socially conservative positions, even though, for several months, it had been careful not to engage in the slippery slope of societal debates openly. MP Julien Odoul posted a series of messages on X clearly condemning the changes contained in the bill currently under discussion. Jordan Bardella himself published an article in Le Journal du Dimanche opposing assisted suicide and calling for palliative care to be made a national priority. “The real progress is care, not death,” he asserts, taking a clear-cut stance—much to the chagrin of the most progressive fringe of the RN, who disapprove of this kind of outburst, which is seen as a wink to the traditional Catholic electorate.
Within the RN, another match is being played out in hushed tones, this time between Bardella and Le Pen. The official line is well-tested: Le Pen will exhaust all legal avenues so that she can be a candidate in the 2027 presidential election. But should the procedure fail, Bardella is ‘prepared’ for any eventuality. That’s all.
A poll published on Monday, May 5th, has thrown the nationalist camp into turmoil. The opinion poll gives Jordan Bardella the win in the second round of the presidential election against all his potential opponents, except Edouard Philippe, the former prime minister and likely successor to Emmanuel Macron, with whom he is tied at 50-50. Marine Le Pen, tested in the same configurations, obtained lower results, beaten by Philippe 48 to 52.
According to the newspaper Le Monde, the poll, commissioned by the think-tank Hexagone and funded by conservative billionaire Pierre-Edouard Stérin, initially planned to submit only options with Bardella. But Le Pen’s entourage intervened to have the party’s historic candidate tested as well—ultimately to her detriment. The result is scathing for Le Pen, who is clearly being outmanoeuvred by her heir. The man could be proud to enter the presidential race without a reputation tarnished by legal problems.
There are still two long years to go before the presidential election that will mark the end of Macron’s too-long reign. It’s going to be a tight race, and it’s hard to say who will come out on top and end up in the Elysée Palace.
