Fiscal Forecast: How To Identify a Recession
There was a lot of media attention recently to Germany being in a recession. The only problem is that those who said so, were wrong. Here is why.
There was a lot of media attention recently to Germany being in a recession. The only problem is that those who said so, were wrong. Here is why.
How is NATO going to respond to the problem with its rapidly depleting stockpiles of military hardware? They can’t spend more money.
Judging from the comments by central bank president György Matolcsy, Hungary could join the euro in 2030 or soon thereafter. Would such a membership be good for Hungary?
There are those who want to force humanity into ‘degrowth.’ That is a dangerous path to go down, and it is unnecessary. Our capitalist economy is becoming more and more efficient over time. In short, it is doing more with less.
Can the U.S. government and its allies prevent a determined group of countries from de-dollarizing and significantly hurting the U.S. economy in the process? How would de-dollarization be affected if the unthinkable happens and Russia wins in Ukraine?
The new debt-ceiling deal has its merits, but it also kicks the big spending reform can down the road. It also ignores the broader threat to the U.S. economy: de-dollarization. On that front, there is one event that could end dollar hegemony with one stroke of the pen.
Les Républicains wants to appear to be in tune with the state of French public opinion, which demands rigour and firmness in the management of immigration.
In 2022, a decade after Geir Haarde’s impeachment trial, Iceland is again amongst the most prosperous and peaceful countries in the world.
If neither wages nor energy prices can explain why the ECB is right in being concerned about persistent inflation, then what can explain it? There is a candidate that nobody wants to talk about: taxes.
We will only get one chance to save America from the abyss of a debt crisis. Let us make sure we get it right on day one.
A year out from a general election in Spain and the political vitriol is running high.
Health care systems with a high degree of government funding were ill-prepared for the pandemic; systems with a higher degree of private and semi-private funding had a much better capacity to respond.
Although some countries have recovered, overall economic activity has been disappointing. To make matters worse, a closer look at capital formation—a.k.a., business investments—and consumer spending suggest that a recession is in fact just around the corner.
Greenpeace openly supports the ‘climate actions,’ pays the lawyers’ bills, and provides space, materials, and know-how. Direct funding comes from the US-based Climate Emergency Fund (CEF), which has already spent $5 million this year.
Retailleau clearly distinguished himself from his colleague Ciotti in this matter of ‘image maintenance’ and political correctness, declaring: “I have never fallen for the Left’s moral lessons.”
Whichever candidates Trump will face in the 2024 presidential primary elections, they will be tough contenders. Running for president is not for the faint of heart.
Some forecasters believe that inflation will persist for an extended period of time. I disagree, and if the signs of an inflation peak are as strong as I believe they are, then Europe could be out of this inflation episode before next summer.
Les Républicains are caught in a dangerous trap, between Macronism and the Rassemblement National, which has established itself as the leading parliamentary group on the Right.
The connivance of the establishment Left (and, though less explicitly, the Right as well) with the long-term strengthening of separatism has been a feature, not a bug, of Spanish democracy.
The term ‘democracy’ no longer refers to a system of government held above ideological bias. Increasingly, it is being misused as a synonym for an election won by ‘the preferred ideology.’ That ideology is socialism.
The troubles of this winter may cause Europeans to search for leadership alternatives focused more on national interests. The politics of Hungary and Italy may spread across the continent, with a rise of conservative victories.
We cannot know for certain what the outcome of the election will be; the very fact that there will be recounts only gives more weight to the “what happened?” question.
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