Category: Analysis

Euros & Dollars: Lower Interest Rates Are Coming

The Federal Reserve is not eager to cut interest rates, but when they get around to it, they will have to pursue two policy goals at the same time—and one goal excludes the other.

Fiscal Forecast: How To Identify a Recession

Fiscal Forecast: How To Identify a Recession

There was a lot of media attention recently to Germany being in a recession. The only problem is that those who said so, were wrong. Here is why.

June 15, 2023
Fiscal Forecast: Budget Deficits Threaten NATO

Fiscal Forecast: Budget Deficits Threaten NATO

How is NATO going to respond to the problem with its rapidly depleting stockpiles of military hardware? They can’t spend more money.

June 14, 2023
Fiscal Forecast: Should Hungary Join the Euro?

Fiscal Forecast: Should Hungary Join the Euro?

Judging from the comments by central bank president György Matolcsy, Hungary could join the euro in 2030 or soon thereafter. Would such a membership be good for Hungary?

June 8, 2023
Fiscal Forecast: The Degrowth Delusion

Fiscal Forecast: The Degrowth Delusion

There are those who want to force humanity into ‘degrowth.’ That is a dangerous path to go down, and it is unnecessary. Our capitalist economy is becoming more and more efficient over time. In short, it is doing more with less.

June 7, 2023
Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part II

Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part II

Can the U.S. government and its allies prevent a determined group of countries from de-dollarizing and significantly hurting the U.S. economy in the process? How would de-dollarization be affected if the unthinkable happens and Russia wins in Ukraine?

June 1, 2023
Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part I

Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part I

The new debt-ceiling deal has its merits, but it also kicks the big spending reform can down the road. It also ignores the broader threat to the U.S. economy: de-dollarization. On that front, there is one event that could end dollar hegemony with one stroke of the pen.

May 30, 2023
Les Républicains To Propose Ambitious Anti-Immigration Plan

Les Républicains To Propose Ambitious Anti-Immigration Plan

Les Républicains wants to appear to be in tune with the state of French public opinion, which demands rigour and firmness in the management of immigration.

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part III: Conclusions

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part III: Conclusions

In 2022, a decade after Geir Haarde’s impeachment trial, Iceland is again amongst the most prosperous and peaceful countries in the world.

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Is Inflation Here to Stay?

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Is Inflation Here to Stay?

If neither wages nor energy prices can explain why the ECB is right in being concerned about persistent inflation, then what can explain it? There is a candidate that nobody wants to talk about: taxes.

May 25, 2023
Fiscal Forecast America: How to Predict a Debt Crisis

Fiscal Forecast America: How to Predict a Debt Crisis

We will only get one chance to save America from the abyss of a debt crisis. Let us make sure we get it right on day one.

May 24, 2023
The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part II: <br>A Flawed and Biased Process

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part II: <br>A Flawed and Biased Process

In Part II of this series, Hannes Gissurarson lays out the case that Geir Haarde was unfairly singled out and blamed for the bank collapse in a flawed and biased process.

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part I: Political Machinations and Legal Manoeuvres

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part I: Political Machinations and Legal Manoeuvres

Hannes H. Gissurarson argues that the whole impeachment process was unjust and that Geir Haarde’s conviction on a fairly trivial charge was legally groundless.