Category: Analysis

Euros & Dollars: A Hard Look at the Economy in 2024

Next year is shaping up to be tough, both for the euro zone and European countries outside of it. How bad will the recession be? Our forecast goes beyond conventional economic wisdom to find out.

Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part II

Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part II

Can the U.S. government and its allies prevent a determined group of countries from de-dollarizing and significantly hurting the U.S. economy in the process? How would de-dollarization be affected if the unthinkable happens and Russia wins in Ukraine?

June 1, 2023
Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part I

Fiscal Forecast: Debt and De-Dollarization, Part I

The new debt-ceiling deal has its merits, but it also kicks the big spending reform can down the road. It also ignores the broader threat to the U.S. economy: de-dollarization. On that front, there is one event that could end dollar hegemony with one stroke of the pen.

May 30, 2023
Les Républicains To Propose Ambitious Anti-Immigration Plan

Les Républicains To Propose Ambitious Anti-Immigration Plan

Les Républicains wants to appear to be in tune with the state of French public opinion, which demands rigour and firmness in the management of immigration.

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part III: Conclusions

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part III: Conclusions

In 2022, a decade after Geir Haarde’s impeachment trial, Iceland is again amongst the most prosperous and peaceful countries in the world.

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Is Inflation Here to Stay?

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Is Inflation Here to Stay?

If neither wages nor energy prices can explain why the ECB is right in being concerned about persistent inflation, then what can explain it? There is a candidate that nobody wants to talk about: taxes.

May 25, 2023
Fiscal Forecast America: How to Predict a Debt Crisis

Fiscal Forecast America: How to Predict a Debt Crisis

We will only get one chance to save America from the abyss of a debt crisis. Let us make sure we get it right on day one.

May 24, 2023
The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part II: <br>A Flawed and Biased Process

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part II: <br>A Flawed and Biased Process

In Part II of this series, Hannes Gissurarson lays out the case that Geir Haarde was unfairly singled out and blamed for the bank collapse in a flawed and biased process.

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part I: Political Machinations and Legal Manoeuvres

The Impeachment of Geir H. Haarde, Part I: Political Machinations and Legal Manoeuvres

Hannes H. Gissurarson argues that the whole impeachment process was unjust and that Geir Haarde’s conviction on a fairly trivial charge was legally groundless. 

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Stop the Taxman!

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Stop the Taxman!

The overall trend in the European economy points in the wrong direction. Therefore, it is a very bad idea to raise any taxes in the EU. It does not matter that the taxes the EU has proposed will fail to generate the revenue that the MEP tax grabbers are hoping for.

May 18, 2023
Finance and Green Expropriation

Finance and Green Expropriation

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, the U.S.’s largest bank, has suggested that in order to allow Green Energy to develop properly, the government may need to seize private property.

Fiscal Forecast America: How a Debt Default Happens

Fiscal Forecast America: How a Debt Default Happens

Politicians are known for two things: they never do what they should, and they always do what they shouldn’t. First, they do not prevent a debt crisis, then they aggravate it.

May 17, 2023
Fiscal Forecast Europe: Macron in Fiscal Shackles

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Macron in Fiscal Shackles

France is at a fork in the road, where her political leaders have shrinking maneuverability, where they are running out of time, and where they cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past.

May 11, 2023