The warning came first from outside Brussels. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said this week that Europe has “perhaps six weeks” of aviation jet fuel reserves left if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
Shortly afterwards, the European Commission itself, which had spent days insisting there was no immediate problem, acknowledged that aviation fuel has become “the main concern.”
The sequence looks all too familiar from other recent crises. First, denial. Then, partial recognition. Finally, emergency meetings once the problem is already on the table.
On Tuesday, the Commission’s transport spokesperson, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, said that “there is currently no evidence of a jet fuel shortage in the European Union.” Only a short time later, she admitted that “in the near future there could be supply problems.” The key point is that the Commission itself had already convened member states and major energy companies last Friday to discuss a risk that, officially, it said did not exist.
The problem is structural. Europe consumes more jet fuel than it can produce and depends on roughly 40% of refined imports that pass through the Hormuz Strait. For years, the EU reduced refining capacity, shut down facilities, and focused its energy policy on decarbonization and external dependence. It worked as long as cheap oil kept arriving and shipping routes remained open. It stopped working when the war with Iran turned the Persian Gulf into a bottleneck.
Before Iran’s announcement that the Hormuz Strait had been reopened, Europe was already beginning to feel the first consequences. Dutch airline KLM has announced the cancellation of 160 flights from Amsterdam Schiphol Airport next month. Officially, the company speaks of “rising costs.” In practice, several European routes are no longer profitable because the price of jet fuel has soared. British carrier easyJet says it is still operating normally, but admits it is closely monitoring supply developments. The same is true for Delta Air Lines, which is heavily involved in transatlantic routes to Europe.
The association of European airports, ACI Europe, warned last week that the EU could face a “systemic crisis” in barely three weeks if Hormuz remained closed. The organisation is calling for joint jet fuel purchases, a relaxation of certain regulatory rules, and urgent market oversight.
On paper, the EU has mandatory reserves equivalent to 90 days of consumption. But those reserves are designed mainly for crude oil and conventional fuels, not necessarily for refined jet fuel ready for aviation use. Moreover, not all member states have the same storage capacity or the same access to refineries.
Although the immediate crisis may be over—for now—southern and eastern countries remain vulnerable. Spain, Italy, and Greece depend especially heavily on air traffic and tourism. Any future prolonged supply disruption would affect not only airlines, but also hotels, airports, exports, and employment.
