Europe Begins To Fortify Itself Rather Than Wait for Washington Guarantees

Europe is in the process of reshaping its security architecture—not through a formal break with NATO or sweeping political announcements, but through an accumulation of bilateral agreements, regional defence mechanisms, and new formulas for strategic cooperation, all driven by a shared fear: that the United States may no longer act as an automatic guarantor of European security under a strong future Donald Trump presidency.

Recent weeks have produced several signals pointing in that direction.

France confirmed the incorporation of Norway into its new “forward deterrence” framework, a strategic arrangement through which Paris intends to gradually expand the European dimension of its nuclear umbrella.

At the same time, the United Kingdom and Poland signed a new defence and security treaty, explicitly aimed at reinforcing Europe’s eastern flank against Russian threats. And in Latvia, the incoming government made the stabilisation of national security the legislature’s absolute top priority.

Taken separately, the three moves respond to different contexts. Taken together, they reflect an effort to build security mechanisms that complement—rather than replace—the American umbrella.

The most significant move is arguably France’s. French nuclear doctrine was always designed as a strictly national instrument. The concept of force de frappe (‘strike force’) emerged during the Cold War precisely to ensure that Paris retained autonomous deterrence capacity, even in the event of disagreement with Washington. That philosophy is now beginning to evolve.

Emmanuel Macron has long argued that French deterrence must acquire a more European dimension, given the deteriorating continental strategic environment and growing doubts about future American commitment.

Norway’s incorporation is particularly symbolic: Oslo is not a member of the European Union, yet it occupies a key position in the Arctic and on NATO’s northern flank.

During Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s visit to Paris, both governments also confirmed the signing of a bilateral mutual defence agreement and Norway’s participation in a broader coordination effort involving other European countries interested in strengthening cooperation tied to French strategic deterrence.

Warsaw is accelerating its own strategy of military diversification. Warsaw remains arguably the most pro-American ally in Eastern Europe. But precisely because of its geographical proximity to Russia and Belarus, it is also one of the countries most wary of potential future strategic ambiguity on Washington’s part. The new treaty signed by Donald Tusk and Keir Starmer has been presented by London as the most significant reinforcement of defence relations between the two countries “in a generation.” The agreement covers military cooperation, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure protection, energy defence, the arms industry and the joint development of new military capabilities—including air defence systems and unmanned technologies.