European farmers could face losses of up to €39 billion over the next seven years as a result of EU carbon tariffs on fertiliser imports, according to major agricultural groups.
The warning focuses on the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which raises the price of imported fertilisers by charging for their emissions. Brussels says the policy is meant to prevent companies from moving production abroad and to protect European industry from cheaper, high-emission imports.
In practice, farmers say it is pushing up costs in a sector already under pressure. Around 30% of nitrogen fertilisers used in the EU are imported. As CBAM raises import prices, fertiliser costs rise—but farmers cannot pass those increases on, because crop prices are set on global markets.
The result is a squeeze: farmers are paying more, but not earning more. Farming groups estimate the direct cost of CBAM at €820 million in 2026, rising to €3.4 billion by 2034, or around €12 billion in total. They warn the impact could be far greater if European fertiliser producers raise prices in response to reduced competition, pushing the total bill towards €39 billion.
Global conditions are already driving prices up. Nitrogen fertilisers depend heavily on energy, much of it tied to volatile regions such as the Middle East. Prices have risen by between 30% and 60% in recent years, according to figures cited in the European Parliament. Additional EU charges, farmers say, only add to that pressure.
There is also growing concern about uneven competition. EU farmers must meet strict environmental and regulatory standards, while some imports enter under looser rules through trade agreements.
Morocco is frequently cited by the sector. Alerts in the EU’s Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) have flagged pesticide residues in some imports, and Commission audits point to differences in plant protection standards. While these products meet EU entry rules, they are not produced under the same constraints as European farms.
This gap has fuelled calls in the European Parliament for “mirror clauses” that would require imports to meet the same standards as domestic production. Farming groups such as Copa-Cogeca argue that without such measures, EU policy risks undercutting its own producers.
Brussels maintains that CBAM is needed to stop emissions being outsourced and to keep climate policy effective. Farmers do not dispute that goal—but say the current system shifts the cost onto them without offering protection or compensation.
With fertiliser costs rising and margins already tight, farmers say the impact is already hitting them. For many farms, the question is whether they can stay competitive at all under the new rules.
