The collapse of Evika Siliņa’s government comes at one of the most delicate moments for the security of Europe’s eastern flank.
The Latvian prime minister announced her resignation this Thursday after losing her parliamentary majority following the breakup of her three-party coalition, triggering a political crisis just months before the elections scheduled for October.
The trigger was domestic, but the origin is directly connected to Kyiv following the explosion of several Ukrainian drones that crossed Latvian territory on their way toward Russia and the subsequent crisis within the defence ministry.
In the short term, Riga’s foreign policy is unlikely to undergo a radical shift. Latvia has spent years building a broad political consensus around Russia, NATO, and support for Kyiv. For Baltic elites, Ukraine is not a matter of external solidarity but an extension of their own national security. That logic remains intact.
But strategic continuity and political capacity are not the same thing. A caretaker government has less room to launch new military packages, approve sensitive measures, or undertake ambitious diplomatic initiatives. In Brussels and across Baltic capitals, there is concern over a Latvia trapped in internal negotiations, because it loses room for initiative as the war continues reshaping Europe’s security map.
Looking ahead to the coming months, several possible scenarios are beginning to emerge.
The first would be a rapid reconfiguration within the current parliament. President Edgars Rinkēvičs could attempt to build a new majority with parties already represented in the Saeima (national parliament) and avoid de facto early elections. However, with less than five months before the vote, many parties may prefer to position themselves electorally rather than assume the costs of governing.
There is also a second scenario becoming increasingly plausible: a campaign shaped by political fatigue and voter punishment of traditional parties. This is where Latvia First enters the picture.
The latest opinion polls place right-wing populist Latvia First as the country’s most popular political force, with approximately 14–15% support. The figure is far from a majority, but in Latvia’s fragmented multiparty system, it turns the patriotic party into a central political actor.
The figure matters because nobody governs alone in Latvia. Governments are usually built through coalitions of three or four parties, and a force that finishes in first place, even with relatively modest percentages, gains the ability to shape negotiations and set the political agenda.
Latvia First could benefit by advancing a narrative that the political system fractured in the middle of a security crisis and that traditional parties once again demonstrated fragility at a moment of heightened pressure across the system.
