The centre-right Popular Party (PP) has won Andalusia’s regional election once again, but lost the outright majority that had allowed it to govern alone—meaning the anti-immigration, nationalist VOX party will hold the balance of power in Spain’s most populous region.
Juanma Moreno, president of Andalusia and leader of the regional PP, secured 53 seats, five fewer than in 2022, leaving his party two seats short of the absolute majority that had appeared firmly consolidated only a few months ago.
That means Moreno will once again depend on VOX to govern.
Andalusia, historically a Socialist stronghold, now mirrors a pattern emerging across Spain: the PP can still win elections comfortably, but often cannot govern without VOX.
VOX itself barely advanced electorally. The party increased its representation from 14 to 15 seats, while its vote share rose by only 0.35%. But because the PP lost its majority, even that small gain suddenly gives VOX far more influence over how Andalusia is governed.
The party did not need a political breakthrough. It simply benefited from declining support for both the PP and the Socialists.
The explanation lies less with VOX than with the weakening of its rivals. Spain’s ruling Socialist Party (PSOE), led nationally by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, fell to 28 seats and recorded its worst result in Andalusia since the first regional elections after Spain’s democratic transition.
Sánchez had hoped that sending María Jesús Montero—one of the government’s most recognisable ministers—would strengthen the Socialist campaign. Instead, the result became another setback for the party leadership in Madrid.
The campaign unfolded amid an increasingly difficult national climate for Sánchez’s government. Judicial investigations, corruption allegations surrounding figures close to the Socialist leadership, and growing public fatigue with Sánchez all weighed heavily on the regional vote.
While the prime minister has focused heavily on his international profile in recent months, the Andalusian campaign focused on immigration, crime and public safety, frustration with Spain’s political class, and everyday economic concerns—issues on which many voters no longer seem convinced by the Socialists’ usual responses.
Another important story emerged on the Left of the PSOE. The rise of the regional left-wing party Adelante Andalucía, combined with the collapse of the Sumar-Podemos alliance, once again exposed the divisions that have weakened Spain’s radical Left for years.
Part of the left-wing electorate appears increasingly tired of Sánchez and his allies; another part is actively searching for alternatives. The result is a divided Left at precisely the moment when the broader right continues to command a comfortable majority.
The election also raises wider questions for Spain’s center-right.
For years, Moreno built a successful political approach based on competent administration, avoiding political confrontation, and winning over moderate and working-class voters who once supported the Socialists. That strategy worked remarkably well. But the latest result suggests it may be reaching its limits.
Many right-wing voters appear to be sending a different message: administrative stability and permanent moderation are no longer enough. A growing share of conservative voters now want firmer positions on immigration, national identity, crime, and relations with Spain’s central government in Madrid. VOX understood the shift earlier than the PP.
VOX barely grows and yet gains influence. The PP wins and yet loses autonomy. In politics, what matters is not always who rises the most, but who stops falling in time.
Moreno must now decide whether to repeat coalition arrangements already seen in regions such as Extremadura, Aragón, and Castile and León, or attempt to govern through unstable parliamentary deals.
The question is no longer only who governs Andalusia, but how long Europe’s moderate center-right parties can continue balancing cautious centrism with voters who increasingly want sharper political positions.
