Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez has defended his government’s mass amnesty for illegal immigrants by claiming Spain’s economy would shrink by almost a fifth by 2050 without continued immigration.
Sánchez said Spain would lose 19% of its GDP by 2050—and 22% by 2075—if migration were sharply reduced, presenting immigration as essential to the country’s long-term economic growth. He also claimed that almost half of Spain’s GDP growth since 2022 had been driven by immigration.
The figures come from Spain’s Office of Foresight and Strategy, which modelled the impact of lower migration. According to the government, Spain would also lose 90,000 bars, see 220,000 farms disappear, and shut down 50,000 classrooms.
The government argues that a larger population means more workers, more taxpayers, more spending, and therefore a bigger economy. However, GDP measures the size of the economy rather than living standards. It does not show whether people can find affordable housing, get a doctor’s appointment, or send their children to schools that are already overcrowded.
Immigration can increase economic output while also increasing demand for public services and putting greater pressure on the welfare state.
Spain’s latest amnesty has already attracted far more applications than expected. The government originally estimated around 500,000 applications, but more than one million were submitted before the June 30 deadline. Authorities now have three months to decide whether to grant applicants residence and work permits valid only in Spain. The programme is the country’s seventh mass amnesty in 40 years, following similar schemes in 1986, 1991, 1996, 2000, 2001, and 2005.
The government has also announced a new Integration and Citizenship Plan worth more than €500 million in its first year, alongside plans to create a new state agency for migration. The spending reflects the fact that integration requires investment in housing, healthcare, schools, language classes, immigration staff, and local services, all of which take time and money to expand.
Spain’s independent fiscal watchdog, AIReF, has previously found that the country’s 2005 amnesty generated an estimated annual gain of around €4,000 in social security contributions and €440 in income tax per newly legalised immigrant. However, those benefits depended on migrants finding stable, formal employment, and education and healthcare costs remained low largely because many migrants already had access to those services before being granted legal status.
Spain already faces high housing costs, long healthcare waiting lists, unequal schools, and a labour market that is difficult for many young and low-skilled workers.
The Elcano Royal Institute has reported that almost one in five foreign-born residents live in overcrowded housing, while 47.8% of non-EU foreign nationals were at risk of poverty in 2024. The figures suggest many migrants continue to struggle to integrate economically.
Sánchez has presented immigration as an economic necessity rather than a political choice. Opponents say measuring success by GDP alone overlooks the pressure on housing, public services, and the welfare state.
