A string of drone incidents in Europe between August 2024 and February 2026 is being treated as a sign of Russian ‘success,’ as part of a coordinated campaign.
This assessment comes from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which in a new report described the idea of a Moscow-led initiative to test European air defences with UAVs as “highly likely.”
Taken together, the seven months’ worth of drone incidents logged would have tested European responses and mapped vulnerabilities, all while staying below the threshold for provoking a collective response from NATO.
Probably launched from and recovered by vessels in Russia’s ‘shadow fleet,’ the UAV-led operation represented what the IISS calls
a series of tactical successes for the Kremlin and a strategic failure of allied air defense.
While the report acknowledges a margin of error, where civilian or criminal use of the devices caused problems, preoccupying national governments, missing the continent-wide pattern of provocation has contributed to delays in attributing responsibility and calling out Moscow more decisively.
