The latest figures released by England’s Department for Education offer a glimpse into the country’s future, revealing how the British are slowly becoming a minority in their own country.
According to the data for the 2025–2026 school year, the proportion of pupils identified as white British has fallen below 60% for the first time, while the share of pupils from minority ethnic backgrounds has reached a record high of nearly 39%.
These developments are presented by British commentator Matt Goodwin on his Substack as evidence of accelerating demographic and cultural change within England. He argues that the trends visible in schools today provide a preview of the country’s future population and social landscape, being based not on British traditions and the English language but dominated by immigration.
The statistics suggest that England’s classrooms are changing at a pace that would have been unthinkable only a decade ago. During the 2015–2016 school year, white British pupils accounted for 70% of all schoolchildren. Now, that figure has fallen to 59.7%.
The trend is evident across all levels of education. In state-funded secondary schools, the proportion of white British pupils has dropped from 71% to 59% over the past decade. In primary schools, it has declined from 68% to just under 60%. The most dramatic shift can be seen in nurseries, where the share of white British children has fallen from 69% in 2016–2017 to 47% today, making them a minority among nursery pupils.
London has reached a historic milestone. For the first time, white British pupils are now a minority in every one of the capital’s 33 local authorities. Areas beyond London are also experiencing similar shifts.
White British pupils now account for only 38% of schoolchildren in Blackburn and 37% in Bradford. In Manchester, the figure stands at 28%, while Leicester records a staggeringly low 19%, and Luton just 13%. Birmingham has one of the lowest proportions, at 2%.
Nurseries present an even more striking picture. Among the 101 local authorities for which data is available, white British children are now a minority in more than half. In areas including Luton, Coventry, Slough, Wolverhampton, and parts of Birmingham and Bradford, they make up roughly 10% or less of nursery pupils.
Alongside demographic change, the latest figures also highlight significant shifts in language use. Across England’s schools, nearly 22% of pupils now speak a language other than English as their first language, compared with 18% a decade ago. This means that more than one in five schoolchildren no longer have English as their primary language.
Goodwin warns that the issue receives little attention from the political establishment and argues that policymakers should engage in a more open discussion about the long-term implications of these changes.
