Category: Analysis

Euros & Dollars: A Hard Look at the Economy in 2024

Next year is shaping up to be tough, both for the euro zone and European countries outside of it. How bad will the recession be? Our forecast goes beyond conventional economic wisdom to find out.

Is ESG Dead, or Just Getting Rebranded?

What does BlackRock CEO’s weariness regarding the ESG label signal for the nexus of global finance and political elites?

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Macron in Fiscal Shackles

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Macron in Fiscal Shackles

France is at a fork in the road, where her political leaders have shrinking maneuverability, where they are running out of time, and where they cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past.

May 11, 2023
Fiscal Forecast America: The Debt Limit Drama

Fiscal Forecast America: The Debt Limit Drama

Democrats and Republicans are bickering over the debt ceiling. They will reach an agreement before the June 1st “default” date, but it will only be a stopgap measure. At some point, Congress will face such high costs for its debt that not even the most optimistic investors can trust the U.S. Treasury any longer.

May 10, 2023
Fiscal Forecast Europe: ECB Silent on New Fiscal Crisis

Fiscal Forecast Europe: ECB Silent on New Fiscal Crisis

While the stars are lining up for another fiscal crisis in Europe, the ECB’s chief economist fails to even mention the threat. Is the ECB ignorant on what is coming down the pike?

May 4, 2023
French Economy Downgraded by Fitch Financial Agency

French Economy Downgraded by Fitch Financial Agency

The downgrade by Fitch is a slap in the face for the French government, and especially for Emmanuel Macron.

Fiscal Forecast America: Media Wrong on GDP Growth

Fiscal Forecast America: Media Wrong on GDP Growth

The official story is that the U.S. economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter. This number is heavily modified and tells us nothing. We have the real numbers.

May 3, 2023
The Central European Paradox

The Central European Paradox

Twenty years ago, Central Europe had the lowest birth rate in the EU. The region has seen the greatest improvement in recent years. At the same time, female employment is also at its peak, the at-risk-of-poverty rate is much lower, and real earnings are rising steadily.

May 1, 2023
European Parliament Divided Over Chat Control

European Parliament Divided Over Chat Control

While the EPP tried to reassure colleagues that the proposed legislation preventing child sexual abuse does not violate the personal privacy of EU citizens, many MEPs remain unconvinced, calling for different approaches.

The Finnish Centre Right’s Victory: Is the Tide Turning in Europe?

The Finnish Centre Right’s Victory: Is the Tide Turning in Europe?

The continent is decidedly moving towards the Right. This could mean that the current balance of power in Brussels could radically change in favor of the center-Right in 2024.

April 30, 2023
Fiscal Forecast Europe: Signs of Stagflation

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Signs of Stagflation

New data suggests an elevated risk for stagflation in Europe. Policymakers beware!

April 26, 2023
Fiscal Forecast America: Farewell to State Independence

Fiscal Forecast America: Farewell to State Independence

America’s states are supposed to be sovereign jurisdictions. Yet when the federal government is their main source of revenue, how independent are they really?

April 26, 2023
Fiscal Forecast Europe: Financial Markets Bad for Tax Revenue

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Financial Markets Bad for Tax Revenue

Financial markets are important to governments that need a lot of tax revenue to pay for their welfare states. The problem with taxes levied on financial markets is that they generate unstable revenue.

April 20, 2023
Fiscal Forecast America: Financial Markets and the Federal Budget

Fiscal Forecast America: Financial Markets and the Federal Budget

The more a tax system relies on financial markets, the more volatile and unpredictable those tax revenues will become. There is no doubt that the U.S. government is experiencing that in real time in 2023.

April 19, 2023